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"Events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, volcanic
eruptions, and tornadoes are natural disasters because they negatively
impact society, and so they must be measured and understood in human-related
terms. At the U.S. Geological Survey, we have developed a new method to
examine fatality and dollar-loss data, and to make probabilistic estimates
of the frequency and magnitude of future events. This information is vital
to large sectors of society including disaster relief agencies and insurance
companies." --Dr. Christopher Barton |
| Natural disasters have become so expensive that the Federal Government
shares in the economic risk. Forecasting this risk is therefore a significant
issue. Insurance coverage for losses resulting from natural disasters is typically less than 20 percent of the total loss, because of limited participation in voluntary insurance coverage. The remainder of the dollar losses are covered by the Federal Government through emergency allocations, the amount of which can increase the national debt. As a result of Hurricane Andrew, where the losses exceed 25 billion dollars, the U.S. Congress is examining the feasibility of establishing a National "insurance" fund from which uninsured losses can be paid when natural disasters strike. Forecasts of future losses based on traditional interpretations of available data produce highly variable results and seemingly yield few patterns. A new method developed by USGS scientists addresses the issue of forecasting the size and number of national disasters and their attendant losses.  Above - Natural disasters represent the intersection of two sets: nature and population. As the population continues to grow, so does the area of intersection, leading to costlier and deadlier disasters. |
 Above - Natural disasters are a "growth" industry. Since the 1960s, economic losses from natural disasters on a global scale have tripled, while insured losses have quintupled. (after Berz, 1992, Natural Hazards, 5, 95-102) |