Data Release

Storm-Induced Coastal Change Forecasts: Louisiana Hurricanes Laura and Delta 2020

By Justin J. Birchler, Margaret L. Palmsten, and Kara S. Doran

U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL, USA

Summary

These datasets contain information on the probabilities of storm-induced erosion (collision, overwash and inundation) on sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf coast of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama during hurricane impact conditions of Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of dune morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to storm events. Storm-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, were compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. Dune morphology observations (dune crest and toe elevation) were derived from topographic lidar (light detection and ranging) surveys. Hydrodynamic data were derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Nearshore Wave Prediction System model (wave setup and runup) and the NOAA Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge model (storm surge). Storm surge exceedance levels of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 90% were used; meaning that, for the 10% exceedance level, the storm surge would be expected to exceed the water level forecast in only 10% of locations, for example. The storm surge, mean and extreme water levels, and probabilities of collision, overwash, and inundation varied due to each storm surge exceedance level. Multiple similar variables are included in each data file for these parameters; the basic names are appended using the following format: ‘e10’ for the 10% exceedance level of storm surge. Data are provided for each NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory during the study period for each storm. For further information regarding data collection and/or processing methods, refer to Stockdon and others (2012). For further information regarding dune morphology observations, refer to Doran and others (2017).

Stockdon, H.F., Doran, K.J., Thompson, D.M., Sopkin, K.L., Plant, N.G., and Sallenger, A.H., 2012, National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards—Gulf of Mexico: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2012–1084, 51 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20121084.

Doran, K.S., Long, J.W., Birchler, J.J., Brenner, O.T., Hardy, M.W., Morgan, K.L.M., Stockdon, H.F., and Torres, M.L., 2017, Lidar-derived beach morphology (dune crest, dune toe, and shoreline) for U.S. sandy coastlines (ver. 7.0, January 2026): U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/F7GF0S0Z.

Data

Suggested Citation

Birchler, J.J., Palmsten, M.L., and Doran, K.S., 2026, Storm-induced coastal change forecasts: Louisiana Hurricanes Laura and Delta 2020: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P148QCG4.

Rights

This work is marked with Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/).