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Fire Island Coastal Change

Morphologic Change - Introduction

A shore parallel trough in the beach formed during the winter following Hurricane Sandy. the bar that separated the trough from the ocean formed as material re-welded to the lower portion of the beach but was overtopped during high tides and storms.
A shore parallel trough in the beach formed during the winter following Hurricane Sandy. the bar that separated the trough from the ocean formed as material re-welded to the lower portion of the beach but was overtopped during high tides and storms. [larger version]
Analyses of 80-years of shoreline change and 40-years of morphologic change demonstrate distinct variations in island behavior over time periods ranging from decades to centuries. High resolution time series analyses of shoreline dynamics provide an approach for linking long- and near-term behavior. Future research will integrate storm response to the long-term response. Bayesian probabilistic models are being developed to incorporate data on the morphologic state and past behavior of the barrier system to predict change resulting from storm events and recovery during intervening periods of fair weather.

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