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St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center > National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards > Tropical Storm Colin

National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards

Tropical Storm Colin Response

Tropical Storm Colin formed in the Gulf of Mexico on June 5, 2016, and made landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida on June 7. Preliminary observations indicate storm surge reached 0.5 m (1.5 ft) to 1 m (3 ft) above predicted tides. Offshore wave heights of approximately 3 m (10 ft) increased water level at the shoreline an additional 1 to 2 m (3 to 6 ft). The combined effects of surge and storm-induced wave runup created elevated total water levels at the shoreline over many tidal cycles, exposing the sandy beaches of the Florida gulf coast to conditions that caused erosion. View real-time total water-level predictions at locations along central west-coast Florida beaches.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hurricanes and Extreme Storms Group investigates coastal change caused by major storms. Predictions of coastal change expected during the landfall of Tropical Storm Colin are made using a USGS-developed model that compares modeled total water levels and observed beach elevations. View and interact with probabilities of storm-induced coastal change, as well as dune elevation and forecast water levels, in the Coastal Change Hazards Portal.

Coastal Change Hazards Portal
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Probabilities of collision, overwash, and inundation for Tropical Storm Colin based on NHC Advisory 4, 0500 AM EDT Monday June 6, 2016.
 
Total Water Level Predictions
Total Water Level Predictions
Map showing the location of forecast total water level observations (left). Forecast total water level (solid blue line) and 90% confidence level (light blue envelope) for a 72 hours period for each of the ten locations are shown in the graphs on the right. If the total water level exceeds the dune toe elevation (dashed yellow line) the dune face may erode. If the total water level exceeds the dune crest elevation (solid yellow line) the dune may overwash.

St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center > National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards > Tropical Storm Colin

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Page Last Modified: December 05, 2016 11:24 AM (JSG)